Apr 02 2009

Minor Football Tangent: Jay Cutler!

Published by at 5:16 am under Fantasy Football Advice,Football,Sports

The Chicago Bears traded two first-round draft picks (one this year, one next) and starting quarterback Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler.  The Bears will suffer in the short-term, but I feel very optimistic that it’ll work out for us in a season or two.

Last season, Cutler threw for 4500 yards and 25 touchdowns.  The most a Bears quarterback has ever thrown for is 3800 yards and 29 touchdowns.  Our receivers are still awful, but I think this will be a good long-term move. It’s not as though we could have used this year’s draft pick on a stellar quarterback or wide receiver.  With the possible exception of Crabtree (who will almost certainly be picked up early), there aren’t any in this year’s draft.   (Also, while I’m dreaming, Plaxico Burress just got released by the Giants).

Relatedly, I’d recommend picking up Kyle Orton in fantasy football.  He had an ok season (3000 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) despite having an awful set of receivers.  He’s just been traded to a team with excellent receivers, a solid offensive line and a terrible defense.  (Quarterbacks tend to produce the most points when their team is down big).  That’s about as good as it gets for a quarterback.

One response so far

One Response to “Minor Football Tangent: Jay Cutler!”

  1. B. Macon 04 Apr 2009 at 7:21 am

    Here’s the worst commentary I’ve been able to find on the Cutler trade:

    If [Broncos coach] McDaniels had unwittingly taken on the villain’s role in Denver during the Cutler soap opera, he emerged as the hero in the end.

    First-round picks are like diamonds in the NFL. Acquiring two gems for Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would have been a super move. Getting them for Cutler, who has been good but not yet great in his young career, is near astonishing.

    That is absolutely inane. Anyone that is stupid enough to even consider trading a proven superstar like Tom Brady for two first-round draft picks– let alone call it “super”– should have his football commentary privileges taken away. Far too many first-round picks crash and burn. For example, let’s look at the top ten draft picks from last year: Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis, Derrick Harvey, Keith Rivers, and Jerod Mayo.

    Of these ten, Gholston and McFadden are definite busts. Ellis, Rivers, Dorsey and Chris Long aren’t exactly busts, but they’re definitely not good enough to build a team around. Of the ten, only two look like they could plausibly contend for the Pro Bowl year after year: Matt Ryan and Jake Long. Generalizing from this year, a high first round draft pick has around a 60% chance of blowing up in your face and only a 20% chance of bringing your team a major asset. If you’d be willing to trade away a definite Hall of Famer for two such picks, you’re a fool.

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