Apr 05 2008
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“In fact, the tide threatens to make GOP stalwarts like Texas up for grabs this fall.”
I don’t know if Kos does political futures betting, but I’d be willing to offer really long odds on a Democratic victory in Texas.
Mar 13 2008
The RealClearPolitics polling averages are showing that Senator Obama has lost a lot of ground to McCain recently and now fares worse than Senator Clinton in a potential matchup with Senator McCain. Respectively, Obama and Clinton have a 1.2 and 1.5% lead over McCain. Furthermore, Obama’s once-noticeable lead over Clinton in head-to-head polling has dropped to a virtually nonexistent 1% in the RCP average.
Going into the convention… Continue Reading »
Feb 16 2008
I think the market has underestimated Clinton’s chances in the state. I’d give Hillary 20% to win it– the state is more demographically favorable for Clinton than most people realize. Right now, you can buy contracts on CLINTON-WI at 14%. I found Slate’s argument that the Clinton campaign will be competitive in WI to be pretty persuasive.
Feb 09 2008
Since I wrote yesterday, the value of an Intrade Romney bid to win the nomination has doubled to $.08, which means a 125:1 payout if it happens. (Remember, the payout for each winning share is $10).
Feb 07 2008
Right now the market thinks that Romney has a .5% of winning the GOP nomination. That means you can get 200:1 odds on him winning it.
“But Romney has suspended his campaign!” you say. “He can’t win it!”
Actually, he still could. McCain is 72 years old and may be medically forced to withdraw from the race before he is officially named the nominee in August. If he does, then I think Romney will be in a better position to take charge at what will probably be the wildest presidential convention in American history.
Jan 30 2008
Giuliani and Edwards are expected to drop out very soon, possibly with a McCain nomination from Giuliani. So I think that McCain has wrapped up the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, I don’t think that Edwards’ departure will matter as much as Obama wants it to. But I do think that the timing is kind to the Republicans.
Jan 18 2008
Some quick predictions on Election 2008 as we limp towards Florida and Super Tuesday.
Jan 11 2008
More presidential political betting stuff. Short version: Sell Guiliani and maybe Clinton. Buy Huckabee, Obama, and McCain. In particular, look at buying a contract on a Huckabee victory in Michigan (!) and Florida (!!!).
Jan 08 2008
Betting on 2008? Find out which candidates now have underpriced betting lines.
Jan 03 2008
I recount what happened in Iowa and how the betting odds have shifted. Good news: most of my predictions were correct. Bad news: Iowa has resoundingly rejected me in favor of people with “experience.”