Feb 09 2008

Speaking of gambling…

Published by B. Mac at 6:09 pm under Politics, political betting, political betting line, political odds

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Since I wrote yesterday, the value of an Intrade Romney bid to win the nomination has doubled to $.08, which means a 125:1 payout if it happens. (Remember, the payout for each winning share is $10).

By comparison, right now Obama and Hillary are trading at $6.00 and $4.00 respectively to win the Democratic nomination. I think that a few people in the market have figured that a McCain health scare might strike out of nowhere, giving Romney reasonably good odds to seize the nomination.

Strong Intrade bets moving forward

  1. Obama to win the Democratic nomination (currently trading at 60%)

    1. The next primaries are very kind to Obama demographically.

    2. Structurally, more of the remaining states use caucuses. Caucuses have, so far, been a lot kinder to Obama than primaries have been.

    3. Right now, 90% of my bets are here.

  1. Romney to win the Republican nomination (currently trading at .8%).

    1. He’s suspended his race, but in the event of a McCain health disaster he would hold on to his delegates and McCain’s delegates would be free agents.

    2. If McCain withdraws suddenly, I think that Romney would have an edge over Huckabee in terms of credibility and electability that would make him the favorite to claim the nomination.

    3. Right now, 10% of my bets are here.

  1. McCain to win the Presidency (currently trading at 35%).

    1. I think he’s a bit less of an underdog against the Democrats, particularly Hillary Clinton.

    2. I checked with Intrade: if McCain suddenly withdraws for medical reasons, the holders of these shares (on both sides) get their money back.

  2. Daniel Day-Lewis NOT to win the Best Actor at the Academy Awards (currently trading at ~15%).

    1. I’ve got a good feeling about this one and the payout is roughly 7:1. Because DDL won the Golden Globe, he is right now the heavy favorite to win Best Actor.

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