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I think the market has underestimated Clinton’s chances in the state.  I’d give Hillary 20% to win it– the state is more demographically favorable for Clinton than most people realize.  Right now, you can buy contracts on CLINTON-WI at 14%.  I found Slate’s argument that the Clinton campaign will be competitive in WI to be pretty persuasive.

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Since I wrote yesterday, the value of an Intrade Romney bid to win the nomination has doubled to $.08, which means a 125:1 payout if it happens. (Remember, the payout for each winning share is $10).

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Right now the market thinks that Romney has a .5% of winning the GOP nomination. That means you can get 200:1 odds on him winning it.

“But Romney has suspended his campaign!” you say. “He can’t win it!”

Actually, he still could. McCain is 72 years old and may be medically forced to withdraw from the race before he is officially named the nominee in August. If he does, then I think Romney will be in a better position to take charge at what will probably be the wildest presidential convention in American history.

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Giuliani and Edwards are expected to drop out very soon, possibly with a McCain nomination from Giuliani. So I think that McCain has wrapped up the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, I don’t think that Edwards’ departure will matter as much as Obama wants it to. But I do think that the timing is kind to the Republicans.

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Some quick predictions on Election 2008 as we limp towards Florida and Super Tuesday.

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More presidential political betting stuff. Short version: Sell Guiliani and maybe Clinton. Buy Huckabee, Obama, and McCain. In particular, look at buying a contract on a Huckabee victory in Michigan (!) and Florida (!!!).

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