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I think the market has underestimated Clinton’s chances in the state.  I’d give Hillary 20% to win it– the state is more demographically favorable for Clinton than most people realize.  Right now, you can buy contracts on CLINTON-WI at 14%.  I found Slate’s argument that the Clinton campaign will be competitive in WI to be pretty persuasive.

The Realclearpolitics polling average says Obama leads by 4.3%.

1. That’s not a very large lead.
2. Wisconsin’s primary is unusually wide-open to independents and Republicans.  WI is a swing-state (pretty much 50-50 in 2004) and the Republican primary is pretty much uncontested.  Republicans may try strategically voting for the candidate they can beat more easily in the general election, which is widely thought to be Senator Clinton.

Beyond this particular bet, I would venture to say that Obama has to win by at least three points or this will raise eyebrows.  According to a blog cited by Time, Obama has outspent Clinton 4-1 in Wisconsin major-media market advertising.  Wisconsin, ideologically thinking, is thought to be one of the change-craziest places in the US (the birthplace of progressivism!).  It’s Midwestern.  Voter turnout will include many independents (and perhaps Republicans).

If a long-shot bet on Clinton winning WI is too rich for your blood, try Clinton winning the Democratic nomination (at around 25%).  Expectations on her WI performance are so low that a narrow loss won’t set her back much but any victory will take the media by storm.  Combined with her demographic advantages in the remaining races, I’d say that she’d be the frontrunner then.  It lets her spin away her string of losses so much more effectively and will probably reinforce that Obama’s support has been mainly to blacks and well-off whites.  That will strengthen her hand going into Texas and Ohio (and eventually Pennsylvania), I think.

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