This site provides writing advice. If you're writing a superhero novel or comic book, please also read our superhero writing articles.

Would you like to subscribe to our RSS feed?

Giuliani and Edwards are expected to drop out very soon, possibly with a McCain nomination from Giuliani. So I think that McCain has wrapped up the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, I don’t think that Edwards’ departure will matter as much as Obama wants it to. But I do think that the timing is kind to the Republicans.

Edwards’ support is very white and generally poorer than Democrats as a whole. Unless the Clintons are far more disliked by the Democratic base than I think they are, I think that the best Obama can hope for from Edwards’ supporters is a thin margin of victory.

Some blacks may feel that, if Obama loses to Clinton, they’ve been screwed by the Democrats. I think that Edwards dropping out before Super Tuesday may be relevant because the white vote may look more monolithic than it has been so far. With the exception of a few subsets of whites (the young and, to some extent, males) it seems that they have definitely preferred Clinton to Obama up to this point. If Edwards’ support drains to Clinton instead of Obama, it might lead to poor turnout in black communities that are probably vital to a Democratic victory in the general election. Black voters are generally regarded as essential to Democratic prospects in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and to some extent Florida.

Moving forward, I think that the conventional wisdom is that the general election will be Clinton vs. McCain. I only see two bets worth pursuing at this point.

1. McCain to win the presidency: the longer the Democratic race drags out, the harder the feelings will be. I can only speak to a particular university in Indiana, but I’ve witnessed some tense conversations between Obama and Clinton supporters here. Right now the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats are sure to win it all, but I think McCain can beat Clinton.
2. Obama to win the presidency: weird reasoning here. If Obama wins the nomination, I think he is the strong favorite to win the presidency. So far, he has polled much better in matchups against likely Republican candidates than Clinton. He has much less baggage and is somewhat less tied to the present state of politics in Washington than McCain. The question is whether he’ll win the nomination. I’d recommend betting on Obama to win the presidency rather than the nomination because you’ll get better odds that way.

I’d probably bet on McCain to win the presidency rather than Obama because I like taking betting positions that depend on strangeness and danger. Generally, foreign policy disasters help Republicans (particularly hawkish and credible ones, like McCain). Economic disasters generally go Democratic, regardless of candidate experience. The conventional wisdom is that we’re more likely to see economic trouble (like a recession) than something like another nation attacking us or taking unusually provocative action. However, I think that Iran will get particularly antsy as US troop casualties in Iraq have reached a level that is, I think, politically sustainable for the US.

Right now Iran is dealing with unrest related to gasoline shortages and they have already taken some questionable actions (like “you are going to explode in a few minutes”). President Bush is structurally crippled, as a lame-duck president with a favorable (and tenuous) position in Iraq, but I think that candidate McCain will be able to perform strongly by suggesting that as President he will git tuff and that “President Obama would meet these guys!”

If you want to git tuff, vote for McCain. If you want to git tuffest, vote for me! The B. stands for bombing.

–B. Mac

Trackback URI | Comments RSS