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Right now, the bid on a Romney win in Nevada today is 85%. He’s probably the favorite– he’s ahead in the polls, in any case– but I don’t think he’s close to an 85% favorite. Right now the five-day RealClearPolitics average has him up five points, 26-21 on McCain. When the numbers are that small, there’s a lot of room for fluctuation.

I’d recommend selling Romney-Nevada before the primary.

UPDATE:

Wow, was I wrong! Romney took 51% and Ron Paul got second place with 14%. The only good news for McCain here is that only around 45,000 voters participated. By comparison, the Swamp can hold 80,000 rabid Gators.

I still feel pretty good about buying McCain to win the nomination. So far, he is faring much better in national polling against Clinton and Obama in an eventual election matchup.

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