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I recount what happened in Iowa and how the betting odds have shifted. Good news: most of my predictions were correct. Bad news: Iowa has resoundingly rejected me in favor of people with “experience.”

DEMOCRATS: Obama is leading Edwards and Clinton with 37-30-29.9. Approximately 90% of precincts have reported. I correctly predicted Obama-Edwards-Clinton (woohoo!) but I incorrectly gauged how close it would be. I said 10-15 points would separate third from first place, but it was only about 7.

Betting Odds: Right now, Intrade has Clinton-Obama-Edwards as 55%/40%/5% likely to win the nomination. If it’s legal for you to bet, take Obama. He’s probably the frontrunner right now.  Edwards has been injured–possibly fatally– by losing to the other anti-Clinton candidate. I think Obama is better-positioned than Clinton to win defecting Edwards voters.

UPDATE (JANUARY 6):  As of January 6, Obama-Clinton are now trading at 52-42%.   I think that’s closer, but I still think Obama is underestimated.  What we saw in Iowa was that second-choice voters are much more OK with Obama than Clinton.  When Edwards drops out, I think Clinton is going to have enormous problems.

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REPUBLICANS: As of 15 minutes ago, Huckabee was leading Romney 31-23 among the Republicans with 40% of precincts reporting. Huckabee has been declared the winner (hopefully the party bosses had access to the remaining 60% of precincts!) I had predicted a narrow Romney victory. However, it looks like my predictions for third through sixth place, McCain-Thompson-Paul-Guiliani, will pan out.

I think the main winner of this primary was McCain. Huckabee can’t compete with McCain for New Hampshire. However, if Romney had been boosted by an Iowa victory, he would present a formidable threat to McCain there. Although McCain is only beating Romney 31-29 in the Real Clear Politics average, Romney may well underperform again. And I think he will slip a little after the media’s feeding frenzy tomorrow. Right now Intrade has McCain-Romney at 66-20% likely to win New Hampshire. That sounds about right, although I’d put McCain at ~80%.

Betting Odds: Intrade has McCain/Guiliani/Huckabee/Romney at 30/27/16/13% likely to win the GOP nomination. I think Intrade has underestimated McCain and overestimated Guiliani. I’d put them at 45-15. As candidates drop out or wane, their support will defect to the most palatable alternative. I think that McCain is best-positioned to win Thompson voters and undecided Republicans. His Iraq strategy has (so far) proven successful. (So successful, in fact, that I may be able to do research in Iraq this summer).

FURTHER PREDICTIONS:

1. Biden, Dodd and Richardson will withdraw very soon. (UPDATE:  Biden and Dodd are out).  They combined for 3%. That won’t really have much of an impact on the race, though. Unlike Thompson, they don’t have enough voters to shift the race much.

2. Thompson will be the first major candidate to withdraw. I think he will withdraw shortly after South Carolina.

3. Edwards will also withdraw after disappointing results in South Carolina. That will probably lead to Obama quickly wrapping up the election.

BEST BETTING OPPORTUNITIES RECAP

1. Obama to win the Democratic nomination

2. McCain to win the Republican nomination

3. McCain to win New Hampshire (if you don’t mind betting on overdogs)

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